A new poll has come out from YouGov surveying the carnage of the post-election landscape. It was incredibly interesting how over the course of the election how the polls changed and shifted towards Labour and then how the exit poll correctly predicted a hung parliament. This new poll only offers basic details, nor does it have how the information was collated,cross tabs, long term comparative data or any specifics about the questions that were asked. But, despite this we can glean some things we’d expect and some things we maybe wouldn’t.
- Conservative Voters Are Dying
The older you are the more likely you are to vote Conservative. People aged 70+ are 3.5 times more likely to vote Tory, and, crucially, they are much more likely to vote. For all the talk of the youth surge impacting on the Corbyn vote the elderly are keeping the Conservatives in power. Put bluntly a cold winter helps the Labour vote. This is also reflected in the fact that the retired predominantly vote Tory while working people vote Labour. Coincidentally these people are also the people more likely to own a house and, in the polling data, house owners are more likely to be a Tory. - Every age is a little bit Liberal Democrat
Curiously the Liberal Democrats have a pretty even spread across the age ranges which suggests their policies are cross generational (or at least the idea of being a Liberal is cross generational). They also poll considerably higher than UKIP voters which might lead you to think that we’re nationally a little less racist than we think. - Social Class has less impact on likely voting
We imagine that Labour is for the poor and the Tory’s are for the rich. Turns out that’s not the case, the battle is not between rich and poor, it’s between young and old. Yes, there’s a slight slant but overall not massive differences. The other socio-demographic area that seems to have a good impact is education….
- Education makes you more liberal and left leaning
Education makes people less likely to be a UKIP or Tory voter. A degree or higher increases you likelihood of voting for the Liberal Democrats by 100% and also increases your chances of voting Labour. All of which is undermined by the fact that everything/one is undoubtedly influenced by media consumption habits… which leads to… - The Daily Mail holds the keys to the kingdom
The Mail has the biggest readership online and one of the biggest offline with 74% of their readers voting Conservative. A small shift in editorial direction could potentially decide things.
So how do they all win?
- Labour
Protect and get support from ages 50 – 69 year olds while maintaining the youth surge.
Push for latter years learning initiatives for ages 40+
Suggest increased funding for later life care (dying with dignity)
Target social media at Daily Mail & Telegraph readers
Pray for cold weather - Tory
Write off all student loans (or promise to) (short term)
Introduce Grammar Schools & limit HE & FE education (long term and counter productive)
Protect press freedoms (aiming to turn The Guardian & The Independent’s editorial bias)
Introduce Government backed low-interest mortgages.
Find a candidate that’s dynamic enough to connect with younger voters - Liberals
Align more closely with Labour’s youth policy and Tory senior policy.
Brand as the Labour lite / Less cunty-Tory party. - Everyone Else
Give up.
Unless you’re UKIP, BNP or EDL, in which case fuck off first then give up.